It is one of the most common questions about the market: how can prices rise if sales fall? In May 2026, the Montreal CMA offers the perfect example of this apparent paradox. For the month's full statistics, see our May 2026 QPAREB analysis. Here, we do not redo the list of figures: we explain the mechanism.
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1. The Apparent Paradox
The facts first: in May 2026, the number of sales fell 7% in the Montreal CMA (single-family -6%, plex -5%, condominium -8%). Yet over the same period, median prices rose: single-family +3%, plex +6%, condominium +1%. Fewer transactions, but at higher prices: the intuition holds, until you look at what each figure actually measures.
2. Mechanism: Price Follows Supply and Demand, Not Volume
Volume and price tell different stories. Volume counts how manyproperties sold; price reflects the balance between supply and demand. A month can see fewer transactions — because buyers wait or few homes are available — without the value of properties falling. As long as those who buy compete for limited supply, prices hold, even rise. Volume measures activity; price measures tension.
3. Mechanism: Supply Stays Insufficient
This is the heart of the 2026 explanation. Even as listings rise (+14% in the Montreal CMA, +13% and 42,066 province-wide), supply starts from a historically low level and stays insufficient against demand. The shortage does not clear in a month. This persistent scarcity keeps upward pressure on prices: there is more choice than before, but not yet enough to tip the balance to the buyer's side.
4. Mechanism: The Composition Effect
One more, subtler lever: the median price depends on what sells. If, over a period, the share of pricier properties rises within total sales, the median climbs — regardless of each home's value taken on its own. This composition effect (or mix effect) can amplify a rise in the median price even when overall volume falls. A useful reminder: the median is a summary, not the exact measure of how a given property evolves.
5. What It Means for You
The lesson: do not confuse slowing volume with falling prices. A market that sells less is not a market losing value. For the seller, it means prices hold, but a fair list price stays essential in a more selective market. For the buyer, it means more time and choice, without a guaranteed discount: waiting for a drop that never comes can cost more than buying at the right price today.