With the Bank of Canada policy rate held at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, Quebec mortgage rates have settled. As of June 19, the variable sits around 3.3% and the fixed around 4%. The classic dilemma returns: should you take the lower nominal rate of the variable, or secure your payment with the fixed? For the monetary backdrop, see our Quebec summer 2026 market outlook. Here is how to decide based on your situation.
1. The Backdrop: Bank of Canada at 2.25%
On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, its fifth consecutive hold. The context explains the caution: a conflict in the Middle East now in its fourth month, rising energy prices and inflation above target. The next announcement is expected on July 15, 2026. This policy rate anchors the cost of financing: as long as it stays stable, mortgage rates stay stable too, making the environment predictable.
2. The Variable at ~3.3%: Who Is It For?
As of June 19, 2026, the variable rate sits around 3.3%, clearly below the fixed. It tracks the policy rate: if the Bank of Canada cuts, you benefit immediately; if it raises, your payments (or interest portion) rise. The variable suits borrowers with a budget cushion, a solid risk tolerance and a belief in a stable or declining rate environment. With five consecutive holds at 2.25%, the current context limits near-term surprises — but nothing is guaranteed.
3. The Fixed at ~4%: Who Is It For?
The fixed rate sits around 4% as of June 19, 2026. In exchange for a rate slightly higher than the variable, it locks your payment for the entire term, regardless of future Bank of Canada decisions. It is the peace-of-mind option: a budget predictable to the dollar, no surprise at each announcement. It suits borrowers who prefer stability, whose budget is tight, or who simply do not want to follow monetary decisions closely.
4. The Real Impact on Your Payment
The roughly 0.7-point gap between the variable (~3.3%) and the fixed (~4%) means, at the same balance, a lower starting payment with the variable. But that is only a snapshot in time: with the variable, a rise in the policy rate can erase the advantage, whereas the fixed freezes that cost for the whole term. The trade-off is therefore not just about today’s rate, but about your ability to absorb a change. Before signing, have both scenarios calculated on your actual amount by your mortgage broker or lender.
5. How to Decide Based on Your Profile
Ask yourself three questions. Your horizon: a short term or an upcoming resale reduces your exposure to variable-rate risk. Your risk tolerance: if a payment increase would keep you up at night, the fixed is worth its premium. Your financial cushion: a tight budget argues for the predictability of the fixed. In the June 2026 context — policy rate stable at 2.25%, next decision on July 15 — no option is universally best: the right choice depends on your profile. And whatever your financing, knowing the real value of your property remains the first step.