Montreal CMA, October 2026: Sales Down 18%, and the Rate Hike Isn't the Reason

The QPAREB released October figures for the Montreal CMA on November 6: 3,252 residential transactions, 18% fewer than in October 2025. The reflex is to blame the Bank of Canada, which raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28. The calendar says otherwise. Here is what the October numbers actually contain, and what they cannot contain.

October 2026 at a glance

According to the QPAREB release, based on Centris data:

• Sales: 3,252 transactions, down 18% year over year and about 13% below the ten-year average for October.
• Active listings: 21,817 at month end, up almost 20%. Plexes +25%, single-family homes +22%, condos +14%.
• Median prices: single-family +2%, condos and plexes stable.
• Average selling times: 36 days for a single-family home, 46 for a plex, 56 for a condo.

The QPAREB still describes the market as generally favourable to sellers, with one exception: the central condo markets on the Island of Montreal, where supply is in surplus.

Why the October 28 hike cannot explain October

A sale counted in October is a transaction completed during the month. Most of the underlying promises to purchase were negotiated weeks earlier, often with financing already pre-approved. The policy rate hike was announced on October 28, three days before month end.

There is more. According to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, a pre-approval usually guarantees a rate for 60 to 130 days, depending on the lender. Many October buyers were shopping with a rate locked before the announcement.

The QPAREB says so itself: its economist Hélène Bégin places October's sharp decline within a downward trend that started at the beginning of the year. If the hike weighs on demand, November and December data will show it, not October's. For the decision itself, see our article on the 2.50% policy rate.

Supply rises while sales fall

The most structural number in October is not the sales decline, it is inventory. 21,817 active listings is almost one in five more than a year ago. Every property type is up, plexes leading, and so is every suburban ring: +34% in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, +30% on the North Shore and +30% on the South Shore.

Fewer sales and more listings slowly shift bargaining power. Yet median prices did not fall: +2% for single-family homes, flat elsewhere. The market is slowing in volume before it moves in price.

What it means for buyers

• More choice: with inventory up 20%, comparing several homes before making an offer is realistic again in most areas.
• More time: average selling times of 36 to 56 days leave room for a second visit and an inspection without extreme pressure.
• No automatic discount: median prices are flat or slightly up. Negotiating room exists property by property, especially on listings that stay on the market beyond the average for their type.
• Rate first: if you don't have a pre-approval yet, the one you get now will reflect the new rate environment.

What it means for sellers

Sellers now compete with a much larger inventory than a year ago. The list price has to be backed by recent comparable sales in the area, not by spring sales. A listing that outlasts the average selling time for its type becomes visible as such to buyers and their brokers.

The good news is in prices: nothing in October's figures points to a broad decline. The market demands a fair price from day one, which is not the same as a falling market.