Q3 2026 Quebec Home Sales Down 7%, Yet Right at the Ten-Year Average

On October 14, 2026, QPAREB, the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (APCIQ in French), released its third-quarter results: 20,935 residential sales across Quebec, down 7% from a year earlier. In the same release it noted that this level is practically in line with the ten-year average. Both statements are true at once. Our piece on the mix effect behind the median price showed how a price figure can move without homes changing value. This one applies the same caution to sales volume: a year-over-year change depends as much on the comparison year as on the year being measured.

What QPAREB reported for Q3 2026

Based on Centris data, QPAREB reports 20,935 residential sales in Quebec between July and September 2026, 7% fewer than in the same period of 2025.

The association frames the decline as part of an adjustment that began at the very start of 2026: the supply of homes for sale keeps growing while buyers are less active. The same release adds that the sales level is practically in line with the average of the past ten years.

September followed the same slope: 7,045 sales province-wide, down 7%, and 3,082 sales in the Montreal CMA against 3,486 a year earlier, down 12%. We broke September down by property type in our Quebec province September 2026 analysis, so we will not repeat it here.

The base effect: a strong comparison year

A year-over-year change compares two points: the year being measured and the reference year. If the reference was itself out of the ordinary, the change mostly describes that anomaly. Economists call it the base effect.

Q3 2025 was not an ordinary quarter. In its review published November 20, 2025, Centris reported sales up 11% from 2024 and called it the most active quarter since 2020. That peak is what the 7% decline is measured against.

A constructed example, for illustration only, makes the mechanism visible. Set the ten-year average level of sales at 100. If the reference year sat at 108, 8% above average, and the following year comes back to exactly 100, the headline change is roughly minus 7.4%. Nothing collapsed relative to normal; the market simply returned to its usual level after a spike.

These numbers are hypothetical and do not describe Quebec. They only show that a yearly decline and a normal level can coexist.

Why a decline is not the same as a weak market

A weak market shows up as low activity against its own history, not as a negative change over twelve months. The two measures answer different questions:

• the year-over-year change tells you whether activity is speeding up or slowing down compared with last year;
• the comparison with the ten-year average tells you whether activity is strong, normal or weak across a full cycle;
• read together, they tell you which way the market is moving and from where.

For Q3 2026 the combined reading is clear: the market is cooling from a very busy year and landing at a transaction level comparable to its ten-year norm. That is volume normalizing, not demand collapsing.

The headline of the release puts it in its own words: Quebec's residential market continues to transition, yet most markets remain seller-friendly.

Supply is rising, but the shortage is not over everywhere

Sales volume alone cannot tell you whether a market is balanced; it has to be set against available supply. QPAREB is explicit that inventory is not yet sufficient to resolve the shortage in some markets.

Hélène Bégin, economist-expert at QPAREB, says the path toward a more balanced residential market in Quebec is far from complete. Rising supply is easing scarcity and fading bidding wars, notably in Quebec City, without eliminating them.

Conditions vary sharply by segment. For single-family homes, sellers remain well positioned in every CMA, with conditions very favourable to them in the Quebec City and Trois-Rivières CMAs and in Rimouski, Saint-Hyacinthe, Rouyn-Noranda, Victoriaville, Joliette and Shawinigan. For condos, Gatineau was the first CMA to head back toward balance, reached a few quarters ago; the Island of Montreal is in a similar position, and downtown Montreal and the southwest are already in surplus.

For Montreal's inventory against its own decade-long norm, see Montreal inventory passing its 10-year average.

Asking price cuts: the signal that moves before prices

The release flags another sign: more downward revisions to asking prices. QPAREB reads this as rising supply making conditions less competitive.

Price cuts matter because they show up before sold prices do. A cut applies to a home still on the market that has not found a buyer at its original price, whereas a sold price only becomes known once a deal closes. When cuts multiply, it often means initial asking prices were anchored to last year's conditions.

Camille Laberge, assistant director of Market Analysis at QPAREB, adds a demand-side factor: affordability is deteriorating, with fixed rates rising in the spring and early fall. Fewer buyers able to keep up and more homes for sale make price cuts the logical outcome.

How to read the next quarterly reports

The base effect cuts both ways, and it will shape the headlines for several quarters. As 2026 quarters become the comparison base, the year-over-year changes published in 2027 will be measured against a year that was already back near its ten-year norm. A flat or slightly positive change then would not mean a boom, just as today's minus 7% does not mean a slump.

A few habits make these releases easier to read:

• look for the comparison with the ten-year average whenever QPAREB or Centris provides one, not only the yearly change;
• set sales against listings rather than reading either number alone;
• watch selling times and asking price reductions, which tend to move before sold prices;
• check whether the figure covers the province, a CMA or a single segment, because each can move in a different direction.

Applied to Q3 2026, those habits give a consistent picture: normal volume, rising supply, and conditions that are slowly becoming less competitive.

What it means if you are selling or buying

If you are selling, the key lesson is your starting point. Setting an asking price based on 2025 conditions exposes you to a cut later, in a market where supply keeps growing. Price from recent comparable sales in your area, not from memories of an exceptional year.

If you are buying, a 7% drop does not mean sellers are under pressure everywhere. In most single-family markets they still hold the edge. The real gain is elsewhere: more choice, less bidding in many areas, and more listings whose price has already been revised.

Either way, the right lens is your area and your property type. A provincial figure averages markets moving at very different speeds.