On June 10, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% — a 5th consecutive hold. The next decision lands on July 15, 2026, the first major milestone of the summer for anyone buying or selling. To understand the broader market picture, see our summer 2026 Quebec outlook. Here is what to prepare before then, on both the buyer and seller side.
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1. Where the Policy Rate Stands
At 2.25%, the policy rate has been stable for five decisions. This pause is no accident: the Middle East conflict (now in its 4th month), rising energy prices and inflation still above target keep the Bank of Canada cautious. As long as these pressures persist, a cut is not guaranteed — nor is an immediate hike on the table. The prevailing read: stability and a wait-and-see stance.
2. Why the July 15 Decision Matters
On July 15, 2026, the BoC will announce whether it extends the pause or shifts course. For a borrower, the stakes are concrete: every move in the policy rate flows through to variable rates and, more indirectly, to fixed rates. Another hold would confirm the predictability of financing and support household confidence. That is why the whole market is watching this date: it sets the summer planning window.
3. Today’s Concrete Mortgage Rates
As of June 19, 2026, the variable rate sits around 3.3% and the fixed rate around 4%. Variable offers a lower initial cost but follows BoC decisions; fixed locks in the payment for the full term. The right call depends on your risk tolerance and horizon: a buyer who prizes peace of mind often goes fixed, while a profile comfortable with fluctuation may target variable.
4. Buyer Strategy
With a stable 2.25% rate, buyers benefit from a window of predictability. The priority: secure a mortgage pre-approval, which typically locks a rate offer for several weeks and sets a clear budget. That puts you in a strong position to negotiate calmly — no urgency to buy ahead of a rise, no reason to wait for an uncertain cut. Shop, compare recent comparables and move when the right property comes up.
5. Seller Strategy
A stable rate attracts considered, budget-conscious buyers: they take time to compare and negotiate more. For sellers, the key is pricing right from the start, aligned with recent comparable sales. In a better-supplied market, overpriced homes stall and pile up days on market, while well-positioned listings — correctly priced, well presented — sell quickly.