Trump Tariffs and Quebec New Construction: Spring 2026 Snapshot

Quebec’s new housing segment is hit in 2026 by an unprecedented combination of pressures: Trump steel and aluminum tariffs, labour shortage and rising construction financing costs. Result: housing starts up 9% in Q1 2026 (driven by multi-family), unit prices up, single-family demand redirected to resale. For the cost mechanics, also see our 2026 Quebec housing starts analysis.

Q1 2026 Housing Starts: +9% (49,206 units, CMHC March 2026)

Per CMHC March 2026 data, Quebec housing starts rose 9% in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025, reaching 49,206 units. The gain is driven by multi-family, while single-family stays constrained by land and financing costs. Despite this resilience, developers cited by APCHQ flag US tariff uncertainty, rising material costs and longer supply lead times as persistent headwinds.

Direct consequence: supply of new homes available for 2027-2028 delivery will be reduced. Quebec’s estimated cumulative deficit now exceeds 75,000 units [TO VERIFY per CMHC].

New Home Prices: +5-8% vs 2024

The median new single-family price in greater Montreal (north and south crowns) moved from $478,000 to about $510,000 in 24 months (+6.7%) [TO VERIFY]. The increase is steeper in upscale residential areas (Boucherville +9%, Mirabel +7.5%).

Developers absorb part of the hike by compressing margins (from 18% to 13%), adjusting specs (cheaper materials), or shrinking unit size. A $510K new home in 2026 delivers 1,850 sqft where it delivered 1,950 sqft in 2024.

Developer Strategies

Three strategies dominate. First, phase deferral: a developer planning 80 units in fall 2026 pushes 30 of them to 2027 to better control cost. Second, pre-sale before construction: requiring 50% sold before pouring foundations reduces risk. Third, geographic diversification: pulling back to regions with cheaper land (Saint-Hyacinthe, Drummondville).

New-Build Buyers: What Changes

Delivery times are stretching. Plan 14-18 months between signing and keys vs 10-12 months in 2023. Contracts now include price-adjustment clauses tied to LME (London Metal Exchange) or material indices; read these carefully before signing.

Tip: insist on a price cap clause — without it, you might see the final price climb 8-12% between reservation and possession. The GCR warranty covers defects, not price swings.

Spillover on Resale

With new construction less competitive, pressure shifts to resale. This is one driver of the +9% Montreal plex jump in March 2026 (QPAAB): buyers giving up on construction and switching to existing stock. Well-located $500-600K single-family homes in close suburbs (Longueuil, Brossard, Boucherville, Repentigny) sell in 12-18 days, often in bidding wars.

12-Month Outlook

If Trump tariffs persist, expect another 4-6% rise in new home prices by April 2027. Housing starts will stay below the 50,000-unit annual threshold needed in Quebec, deepening the deficit. If trade tensions ease (Carney-Trump deal), new prices could stabilize within 6-9 months.

Conclusion: New vs Resale, the Math Has Changed

Well-located, well-inspected resale is often more competitive than new construction in 2026, without the wait or price-adjustment risk. Hamza Taleb, OACIQ broker at RE/MAX (438 877-8525), assesses with clients the right tradeoff per life project and financial profile.