Trump Tariffs 2026: Real Impact on Quebec’s Real Estate Market

The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2026 create significant economic uncertainty for Canada. The Bank of Canada explicitly cited this uncertainty when maintaining its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18.

Impact on Mortgage Rates

Tariff uncertainty keeps the Bank of Canada in wait-and-see mode. 5-year fixed rates remain around 3.69% instead of potentially falling to 3.2–3.4%. For buyers renewing their mortgages, this means higher-than-expected payments for another 6–12 months.

Impact on Construction and Supply

US-imported materials (lumber, steel) see cost increases of 15–25%, slowing new housing starts. The paradox: fewer new units means more pressure on the resale market, supporting existing property prices.

Regional Winners and Losers

Export-dependent regions face higher economic slowdown risk. Montreal and Quebec City remain better insulated with diversified economies. For Montreal plex investors, structural rental demand provides a cushion.