Canadian House Prices in Real Terms: Back to Late 2016

A house price can fall in two ways: in dollars, and in purchasing power. The first shows on listings; the second only shows once inflation is taken out. Inflation-adjusted house prices in Canada can be measured with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) series, which cover both, and the gap between them is the most telling figure right now. Recent inflation, item by item, is covered in our article on the August 2026 CPI.

Two indexes for the same price series

For Canada, the BIS publishes two quarterly residential property price indexes, with 2010 = 100. The nominal index tracks prices in current dollars. The real index is the same series deflated by the consumer price index: it measures what a home is worth once inflation is removed.

The figures below are calculated from the two series distributed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, under codes QCAN628BIS for the nominal index and QCAR628BIS for the real index, last updated June 25, 2026. The latest available value is for Q1 2026.

Q1 2026: -4.8% nominal, -6.8% real year over year

• Nominal index: 210.3 in Q1 2025, 200.2 in Q1 2026, or -4.8%.
• Real index: 150.7 in Q1 2025, 140.4 in Q1 2026, or -6.8%.

The real decline is larger than the nominal decline because inflation adds to the price drop: while homes were losing dollars, dollars were themselves losing purchasing power.

Since the 2022 peak

Both indexes peaked in Q1 2022: 250.7 nominal and 198.6 real. Since then, the nominal index has fallen 20.1% and the real index 29.3%.

In other words, the real index has lost close to a third of its peak level, while the decline shown in dollars is about one fifth. The two measures tell the same correction, but not with the same magnitude.

The real level of late 2016

At 140.4, the Q1 2026 real index sits between its Q4 2016 level, 138.3, and its Q1 2017 level, 146.4. You have to go back to Q4 2016 to find a quarter when the real index was equal to or below its current level.

The nominal index has not gone back by the same proportion: in Q4 2016 it stood at 152.8, and it is now at 200.2, about 31% higher. In dollars, a home costs clearly more than in 2016; in purchasing power, it costs about the same as at the end of that year.

What these indexes don't tell you

They are national indexes. They describe neither Quebec, nor a city, nor a property type: a return to the 2016 real level for Canada as a whole can hide large differences from one market to another.

They do not measure affordability either. A lower real price says nothing about mortgage rates or household incomes, which determine what a buyer can actually pay each month.

Finally, the latest value is for Q1 2026. It describes the market of several months ago, not today's.

What buyers and sellers can take from it

For a seller who bought before 2017, the sale price in dollars is likely still above the purchase price. But that nominal gain largely reflects inflation: measured in purchasing power, it is much thinner than it looks.

For a buyer, the real reading is a reminder that the correction since 2022 is deeper than listed prices show. It does not say whether now is a good or bad time to buy: that depends on the local market, rates and budget, which only a comparable sales analysis can place.

Sources: National sources, BIS Residential Property Price database, http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm; series QCAN628BIS and QCAR628BIS distributed by FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Changes and comparisons calculated by CourtiConnect.