Prime Rate at 4.70%: Which Loans Move, and When

Since October 29, 2026, National Bank's prime rate has moved from 4.45% to 4.70%. The same 0.25-point increase does not hit every borrower the same way or at the same time. Our article on prime at 4.45% and HELOC costs explained where the gap between prime and the policy rate comes from. This one follows the hike product by product: who pays more right now, who quietly repays less principal, and who is only affected at renewal.

The starting point: prime at 4.70% as of October 29

On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Banks then adjusted their prime rates. At National Bank, prime went from 4.45% to 4.70% effective October 29, 2026.

Prime is the benchmark for most variable-rate borrowing. But not every product passes it through the same way or at the same time. For the same 0.25-point increase, there are three possible outcomes depending on how your loan is built: a payment that rises right away, a payment that stays put while its make-up changes, or nothing at all until renewal.

Group 1: HELOCs and adjustable-rate mortgages

These are the most direct. Their rate is quoted as prime plus or minus a spread (for example, prime minus 0.50). When prime rises, the loan rate rises by the same amount from the effective date, and interest accrues at the new rate.

On an adjustable-rate mortgage, the payment is recalculated to keep the original amortization on track. Here is an illustrative example, using monthly compounding for simplicity: a $400,000 balance over 25 years at prime minus 0.50.

• Before: prime 4.45%, loan rate 3.95%, monthly payment of about $2,100.
• After: prime 4.70%, loan rate 4.20%, monthly payment of about $2,156.
• Difference: roughly $55 more per month, or about $665 over a year.

Exactly when the new payment kicks in depends on the lender, usually with the first payment after the new prime takes effect. Your lender should notify you, and the notice shows the new amount.

A home equity line of credit follows the same rate logic with one twist: the minimum payment is often interest-only, so the increase shows up directly on the next statement. We broke down HELOC costs and the gap between prime and the policy rate in our article on prime at 4.45%; the reasoning is unchanged with 25 more basis points on top.

Group 2: fixed-payment variable mortgages

Here too the loan rate rises as soon as the new prime takes effect. The payment, however, does not change. What changes is the split: the interest portion grows and the principal portion shrinks.

Same illustrative loan, with the payment set at about $2,100:

• At 3.95%, first-month interest is about $1,317 and principal about $784.
• At 4.20%, interest rises to about $1,400 and principal drops to about $700.
• Your bank statement shows the same withdrawal, but about $83 less goes toward principal each month.

This is where a hike is least visible and easiest to miss. Principal is paid down more slowly, stretching the effective amortization. We will not redo the trigger-rate math here, meaning the rate at which the payment no longer covers interest; that is covered step by step in our trigger rate article. The practical move is to check your next statement and compare the principal portion with the previous one.

Group 3: fixed-rate mortgages

A fixed-rate mortgage does not react to prime. The rate is set by contract for the full term, and the payment stays the same while the term runs. The October 29 increase has no effect on a fixed mortgage in progress.

Any effect shows up at renewal. Even then, the policy rate is not what sets the price: fixed rates mostly track bond yields of similar maturity. Those yields anticipate monetary policy well ahead of announcements and also respond to other factors. Quebec's real estate board, the QPAREB, noted on October 14, 2026 that fixed rates had already risen in the spring and early fall, before the policy rate moved.

Why the same hike feels so different

The three groups share the same underlying rate increase. What differs is the contract mechanics that decide who absorbs it and when. On an adjustable-rate mortgage, you absorb it in cash flow right away. On a fixed-payment variable mortgage, you absorb it in equity, because less of each payment builds ownership. On a fixed-rate mortgage, the lender absorbs it until your term ends, and then the market resets your rate based on bond yields at that point.

Knowing which group you are in tells you what to watch: your monthly budget, your principal balance, or your renewal date.

Pass-through order at a glance

• Immediate, higher payment: adjustable-rate mortgage, usually from the first payment after the new prime takes effect.
• Immediate, higher interest: HELOCs and other prime-linked lines, visible on the next statement.
• Immediate but hidden: fixed-payment variable mortgage, same payment, smaller principal portion.
• Deferred: fixed-rate mortgage, no effect until renewal, with a renewal rate driven by bond yields rather than the policy rate.

What to do before December 9

The Bank of Canada said it will take decisions one at a time and that there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, carefully. Its next announcement is set for Wednesday, December 9, 2026. Another hike would flow through in the same order.

• If your payment floats: read your lender's notice, note the new amount, and check that your budget can absorb another 0.25 point (about $55 a month in the example above).
• If you have a fixed payment on a variable loan: ask for the principal portion of your next payment and the date of your next payment review.
• If you are fixed: nothing changes today. Note your term end date and start comparing offers several months ahead.
• If you are buying: a rate move changes your payment, not the property's value. Compare the price with real sales in the area before committing.

For your own situation, your lender or mortgage advisor is the right person to ask: recalculation rules vary from one contract to another.