Mortgage Refinancing in Quebec 2026: When and How to Do It
With the policy rate at 2.25% and 5-year fixed rates around 3.69%, 2026 is a pivotal year for evaluating refinancing. 60% of Canadian mortgages renewing in 2025–2026.
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The 0.5% Rule: Break-Even Calculation
Example: $400K at 4.25% to 3.69% = $2,240/year saved = $11,200 over 5 years before penalties. Balance against estimated penalty of $4,000–$14,000.
How Penalties Are Calculated
For fixed-rate: greater of 3 months’ interest or IRD. Major banks often calculate IRD unfavorably. Compare with an independent mortgage broker.
When to Wait Rather Than Refinance
Within 18 months of term end: wait. If April 29 BoC might bring a cut: consider waiting. Rule: break-even = penalty / monthly savings = months to recover. If that exceeds your remaining term, wait.
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