5.4 months of inventory Montreal CMA: start of the shift to a balanced market?

April 2026 marks the ninth consecutive monthly rise of active listings in the Montreal CMA: 20,959 listings on market, up 14.9% year-over-year. At the current sales pace (4,744 transactions, -7%), that translates to 5.4 months of inventory. The dominant question of the spring 2026 market: when does the CMA shift to balanced? For the condo-specific detail, see our condo listings up 21% article.

What does "5.4 months of inventory" mean exactly?

The months-of-inventory indicator measures how long it would take to absorb all active listings at the current sales pace. Calculation: active listings divided by monthly sales. In April: 20,959 / 4,744 = 4.4 raw months, but QPAREB publishes a smoothed average of 5.4 months to neutralize seasonality.

Industry-standard thresholds: below 5 months = seller market (seller bargaining power, frequent multiple offers). Between 6 and 8 months = balanced market (symmetric negotiation). Above 8 months = buyer market (frequent seller concessions, forced price cuts). At 5.4 months, the CMA remains technically a seller market but one notch from the shift.

9 consecutive monthly rises: a solid signal

The 14.9% rise in listings is not a one-off event. It is the ninth consecutive rise in supply, signalling a structural — not seasonal — shift. Three drivers feed the accumulation: sellers who anticipated a fast rate-cut cycle and waited too long, end of post-pandemic psychological blockages (some households have been deferring since 2022), and arrival of properties stuck behind mortgage renewals that became painful.

On the sales side, the 7% drop reflects buyer caution in an uncertain economic climate (Trump tariffs, BoC on hold, inflation rising). The supply/demand ratio loosens, mechanically pushing months of inventory higher.

Path to 6 months of inventory

If the trend holds — listings +14.9% and sales -7% — the CMA could cross the 6-month threshold as early as summer 2026. But the path is not linear. Three variables can accelerate or slow the shift.

Variable 1 — June 10 BoC decision. A 25 bp cut would relaunch pre-approvals and purchases, slowing the rise in months of inventory. An extended hold accentuates the current trend. Current market probability: 30 to 40% cut, but eroding if April CPI prints 3%.

Variable 2 — Seasonality. Summer traditionally slows new listings (sellers on vacation, quieter market). This could temporarily stabilize months of inventory before a new wave in fall.

Variable 3 — 5-year fixed rates. A rise to 5.0%+ (inflation 3% scenario) would further suppress demand, accelerating the shift. A drop toward 4.5% (BoC cuts scenario) would relaunch the market and slow the shift.

Heterogeneity by property segment

The "5.4 months global" figure masks large segment differences. Condos are shifting fast: listings +21% in April, median price nearly flat at $425,000 (+0.2%), with an estimated 7 to 8 months of inventory on condos alone — already at or beyond balanced on some submarkets (downtown, Old Montreal, neighbourhoods over-represented in new condo stock).

Single-family remains a tight seller market: median $645,000 (+3.2%), estimated inventory 4 to 4.5 months. Plex are the tightest: median $865,000 (+3.7%), estimated inventory 3 to 4 months. Conclusion: the global CMA shift masks a segmented reality — condos already at the threshold, single-family and plex remain seller markets.

Buyer implications: the window opens

For a condo buyer: the negotiation window is open. Multiple offers are rare outside prime pockets. Effective tactics: offer 3 to 5% below asking on listings 30+ days on market, keep a full inspection clause, non-conditional financing if pre-approval is solid.

For a single-family or plex buyer: negotiation room remains thinner, but typical overbid has dropped to 0 to 3% over asking (versus 5 to 10% in 2024). A 120-day pre-approval is mandatory to stay competitive without resorting to aggressive overbidding.

Seller implications: window slowly closing

For a condo seller: going to market now with clean execution beats waiting. Fall 2026 could bring more supply and less buyer urgency. Realistic price + pro photos + tight marketing are mandatory.

For a single-family or plex seller: still a seller market, but easy overbids are over. Fair pricing (3 to 5 Centris neighbourhood comparables), professional execution, and acceptance that the final negotiation may land at asking rather than above.

Hamza Taleb, OACIQ broker at RE/MAX (438 877-8525), tracks monthly inventory by submarket and adapts buying or selling strategy to the dynamic of each property type.

Conclusion: CMA in transition, but segments desynchronized

With 5.4 months of inventory and 9 consecutive months of rise, the Montreal CMA is shifting toward balanced, possibly crossing the threshold this summer. But the key word is segmentation: condos are almost there, single-family and plex remain seller markets. The strategy must adapt to the submarket, not to the global headline.