Estimating Your Home's Value in a Slowing Market: Which Comparables to Use

"How much is my home worth?" The answer depends on which sales you use as a reference. In a rising market, slightly older comparables underestimate value a little. In a slowing market, like the Montreal CMA in fall 2026, they can overestimate it. Here is how to choose comparables when the market changes pace.

An estimate always looks backward

Any serious estimate starts from completed sales: similar properties, in the same area, sold recently. That is its strength, because these are prices actually paid. It is also its limit: it describes the market at the time of those sales, not today's.

When Montreal CMA inventory rises 20% in a year and sales fall 18%, as in October 2026 according to the QPAREB, the gap between the comparables' market and today's market widens.

The date that matters: the agreement, not the deed

A sale registered in November was often negotiated in September or October. The price reflects when buyer and seller agreed, not the signing date at the notary. When possible, look at the date the promise to purchase was accepted rather than the deed date: two sales "from the same month" can reflect two different markets.

Active listings: your real competition

Past sales tell you what buyers paid. Active listings tell you what your home will be compared with tomorrow. In a market where supply is growing, buyers will see several homes similar to yours, at their sellers' asking prices. Your estimate must account for that competition, not just completed sales.

Expired listings: what the market turned down

A property that stayed on the market for a long time, then was withdrawn or expired unsold, is a valuable signal: at that price, in that area, the market didn't follow. This data is rarely highlighted, but your broker has access to it. It caps the top of the realistic range.

Adjustments to make

• Time: a six-month-old comparable in a market that has changed should be read with caution, especially if it dates from a seasonal peak.
• Features: living area, bedrooms, garage, condition, recent renovations.
• Exact location: a busy street, a park, a view, a school.
• Time on market: a comparable sold in a few days in a tight market doesn't say the same thing as a sale closed after months.

An online automated estimate gives a fast first ballpark; our tool starts from real sales in the area. To set a list price, it should be complemented by a broker's analysis that handles these adjustments. For the difference with the property tax assessment, see municipal assessment vs market value.