Bank of Canada April 29, 2026 Rate Decision: How to Prepare

After two consecutive holds, the Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision on April 29, 2026. The stakes are high for homebuyers, investors and homeowners approaching renewal.

Why Two Consecutive Holds

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on March 18, citing US tariff uncertainty and global energy price pressures. These factors complicate economic forecasting and justify a cautious approach.

Two Scenarios for April 29

Scenario 1 — Hold at 2.25% (estimated 60–65% probability): trade tensions persist. Variable rates stay at ~3.35%, 5-year fixed at 3.69%. Scenario 2 — Cut 25 bps to 2.00% (35–40%): marked economic slowdown. Prime rate falls from 4.45% to 4.20%.

Renewal Strategy Before April 29

If renewing before April 29, ask your lender for an adjustment clause within 90 days. On a $400,000 mortgage, a 25bp cut saves $100–150/month. Most lenders will grant it to retain your business.